In one of my earlier postings, I discussed how a risk analysis is the foundation upon which all security programs are based. When planning for personal security, you need to evaluate your risks and vulnerabilities and then make rational choices based on that evaluation. This is a defensive use of risk analysis; it is designed to keep you safe and ensure that you can go about your day-to-day activities without anxiety or debilitating fear.
Unfortunately, there is a dark side to risk analysis; it can be used offensively as well as defensively. Just as you evaluate your risks and vulnerabilities in order to keep yourself safe, a rational criminal will assess his risks before committing a crime. Criminals risk being arrested, harmed, or killed and many of them take those risks seriously.
Your objective is to make yourself a poor return on investment for the perpetrator. The potential victim who makes him or herself too risky for an attack will likely be rejected in favor of another victim. To exploit this, one has to understand the process by which a rational adversary may select victims.
Ask yourself, in order for a person to physically attack me, what must they do?
Risk Analysis from the Perpetrator’s Perspective
Stage 1: Target Assessment: The perpetrator must select a target. Target selection can be based on some or all of the following:
1. What type of crime does the perpetrator want to commit?
2. Does the intended victim fulfill the requirements of the perpetrator?
3. Is the intended victim distracted and unaware of their surroundings?
4. Is the intended victim handicapped or have some other condition that makes them appear to be an easy target?
5. Does the intended victim show fear or timidity?
6. Is the intended victim carrying bags or other items that may lessen their ability to defend themselves or run?
7. Is the intended victim wearing restrictive clothing that is likely to interfere with their ability to run or fight?
Stage 2: Target Isolation: In order for the perpetrator to commit the crime they must be able to isolate the target.
1. Is the intended victim alone?
2. Are there bystanders present?
3. Does the terrain provide areas for concealment?
4. Are there people within hearing distance?
Stage 3: Probing: Probing is the initial contact between the perpetrator and the intended victim. In the probing stage, the perpetrator is “interviewing” the potential victim and testing boundaries. This process may take place over a long or short period of time. The perpetrator wants to see how the victim reacts when confronted.
1. Is this going to be someone who will struggle, fight or submit?
Stage 4: Distraction: The perpetrator may use ruses to distract the victim from the impeding attack. Some of these may include:
Can you help me find my lost child? A perpetrator approaches his target and says that his young daughter went into the ladies room and hasn’t come out for quite awhile. He then asks if you’d mind going in to check on her. Of course, there is no daughter and you have now isolated yourself in a room with only one escape route.
Can I use your cell phone? Many people will say yes to a request to use a cell phone or to give someone a quarter to use a pay phone. If you are dealing with a criminal you may be assaulted while reaching into their purse or coat to retrieve the phone or quarter.
Faking a medical emergency: You walk out to your car and see someone is laying on the ground clutching his chest. Many people would go over to try and help the person and this is admirable; however, if used as a distraction, you are now in close proximity to the perpetrator and are either on, or close to, the ground. This positioning limits your ability to maneuver or escape.
My car won’t start. Do you have jumper cables? If you have jumper cables, they are most likely in the trunk of your vehicle. Once you open the trunk and bend over to reach inside, you are off balance and can be thrown into the trunk of your own vehicle.
Can I help you with that heavy bag? Politeness and/or chivalry aren’t completely dead, but it is much rarer than it used to be. Maybe the young man asking if he can help you with the heavy bag is being polite. Maybe he just wants an excuse to talk or flirt with you and has no intention of harming you. Alternatively, maybe he is trying to lull you into thinking he isn’t a potential threat. Be wise and be wary of people who are too polite for the circumstances.
Stage 5: Attack: In an attack, the perpetrator’s objective is to completely overwhelm the victim by a combination of force and threats. The idea is to so scare the victim that he or she panics, freezes and fails to fight back. Remember, many victims of violent attacks do not submit because of force or injury, but because of threats.
Stage 6: Defeat: The final stage of the attack where the victim is compliant.
Disrupting the target selection process: Some General Guidelines for Personal Security
Accept: Accept the fact that anyone can be a victim of violence. While risk varies from person to person, anyone can be a victim. If one fails to recognize this potential, they will have no reason to plan. Thinking about violence can be scary. Keep things in perspective; most people aren’t out to harm others.
Assess: Try to view yourself as a perpetrator would. Practice “defensive victimology”. Ask yourself, if you were looking for a victim, would you look for someone like yourself?
Plan: Ask yourself “what if” questions. What are you willing to give up to a criminal and under what circumstances? At what point, if any, are you willing to commit to personal combat? The act of planning right now can make you more confident and lessen your reaction time during a critical incident.
Avoid: Avoid potentially dangerous situations. Be aware of your environment- train yourself to notice small details. If your car was locked when you left it there, it should still be locked when you return. If you feel that something is wrong, it probably is.
Act: If you see a dangerous situation, report it to the relevant authorities. By making the area safer for others, you will also make it safer for yourself. If confronted, deescalate the situation, distract the perpetrator and, if possible, escape.
Perspective:
The point of the above is not to make you afraid or fill you with anxiety. The reality is that most people have no intention of harming you. Still, criminals often plan their activities and as a law abiding citizen you are at an inherent disadvantage. You do not know the specific intentions of the people around you or the time and place where someone may choose you as a victim. By thinking, planning and deciding on a general course of action now, you should be better positioned to avoid trouble.
In my next two postings, I will address a couple of questions that I have been asked many times over the last several years: “Should I study martial arts?” and “Should I carry a gun?”
By: SA Watson
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