Risk Analysis

The fundamental building blocks of a security program are the same whether one is talking about an organization, a nation or an individual; it is only the scale and complexity of the undertaking that changes. In the last two postings, I discussed the role of mindset and perception in the development of a personal security program. Once one has begun to adopt the basics of a security mindset and has examined how personal perceptions impact their view of danger, it becomes necessary to conduct a risk analysis.

A Simplified, Individual Risk Analysis Process:
The phrase “risk analysis” may sound overly complex and, at the organizational level, it can be. In fact, there are multiple books written and various methodologies developed for conducting a risk analysis. Fortunately, all of these techniques share some commonalities that we can apply to our everyday lives. For our purposes here the risk analysis process consists of the following steps:

1. Asset Identification: Determine what are you trying to protect. For most people the answer will be their physical well being, but the same question is applicable if you are protecting property, information or any other thing of value.

2. Consider Loss Events: What are you trying to protect yourself from? At first it may seem that everyone should be concerned about the same things, but this is not necessarily the case. A college student would likely be less concerned with robbery because traditionally, college students don’t have very much money and thus are a poor target for robbers. On the other hand, an owner of a small store making night deposits at his bank may be very concerned with robbery. So ask yourself, what types of crime am I specifically concerned about?

3. Consider Risk: What is the probability that I will become a victim? Much, but not all of this, is determined by lifestyle. Do you travel alone to high crime rate areas? Do you often place yourself in situations where you have little or no control over your surroundings? The answers to these questions and ones like them will help you determine which behaviors you engage in that raise your risks and which behaviors lower your risks.

4. Consider Vulnerability: Ask yourself, if someone tried to commit a crime against me, how likely is it that they would be successful? Do you follow predictable routines? Do you leave doors unlocked at your residence? Can you physically defend yourself? If so, how well? Do you have a weapon? If so, is it accessible and can you legally use it? Are you psychologically prepared for personal combat? Remember that when assessing vulnerability, people tend to either downplay their vulnerability to the point where it is ignored or just assume that they are completely incapable of defending themselves. The reality is almost always somewhere in between these two extremes.

5. Consider Potential Impacts/Costs: If someone successfully committed any one of the crimes you identified against you, what would the costs be? Monetarily? Physically? Emotionally? Psychologically?

6. Consider Countermeasures: A countermeasure is a means of preventing or reducing the chances of a crime occurring or, barring that, a plan to limit or mitigate the impacts of the crime. When considering countermeasures, ask yourself what, if any, of your high risk behaviors are you willing to change? How can you reduce your vulnerability and thus make yourself a harder target for criminals?

In the next posting, I’ll discuss developing and implementing countermeasures in more detail.

By: SA Watson